2024 is set to be a formative year for democracy with 40 national elections globally, accounting for almost two billion of the world’s population.
Starting with the most imminent, on 7 January Bangladesh will hold its twelfth parliamentary election and current prime minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to win a fourth term.
This comes despite violent protests in Bangladesh throughout 2023 calling for her resignation.
Human Rights Watch have accused Hasina and her party, the Awami League, of authoritarianism regarding free speech, dissent, and human rights.
Following Bangladesh, Taiwan will hold its national election on 13 January. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a pro-independence party, is seeking re-election but faces opposition from the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party.
A DPP win may increase tensions with China and exacerbate the risk of military interference.
Other countries where no change in leadership is expected include autocratic Algeria, Iran, Russia, and Tunisia – where elections have consistently seen low voter turnout.
Additionally, though India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has received criticism for his “intolerance” and persecution of Muslims, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is set to win a third term.
Read More: India’s Controversial Citizens (Amendment) Act
Mexico’s election in June stands to be a landmark event as the country is set to elect its first female president.
Claudia Sheinbaum was chosen as the ruling party’s candidate after current president Andrés Manuel López Obrador was barred from running for re-election.
The opposition coalition, Broad Front for Mexico, has also produced a female candidate – Senator Xochitl Gálvez.
With women at the seat of both major parties, Mexico is likely to see its first female president in 2024.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesian president Joko Widodo is also constitutionally barred from running for a third term this February.
Senegal will see a change in leadership this year as President Mackey Sall announced he would not be running for an extra-constitutional third term after violent protests.
Current ruling parties in the UK and South Africa likely face an unfortunate fate in 2024.
Politico currently places the UK’s Conservative Party’s popularity at 25 per cent, a far cry from the 44 per cent majority won by Boris Johnson in 2019.
Read More: Sunak’s new cabinet: a guide to who’s in and who’s out
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) may lose its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 as the party’s support has been in decline since Mandela’s leadership.
The United States will hold its presidential election in November of this year.
Donald Trump – the expected Republican nominee – will be facing trial on criminal charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States, among other charges.
Read More: The 2024 US Presidential Elections: what to expect
The states of Maine and Colorado have both ruled to bar Trump from the primary ballots in their states on account of his involvement in the January 6th insurrection.
Illinois voters have filed a petition for the same to be done there.
The US Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal against these decisions, while he remains high in the polls at the outset of the year.
Meanwhile, current president Joe Biden has been criticised over his response to the situation in the Middle East to his fitness to hold office at age 81.
Third-party candidates may pose more of a threat this year than usual, especially for Biden; Robert F. Kennedy Jr – originally running for the Democratic nomination – has qualified as an independent for the presidential ballot in his first state, Utah.
The European Union will hold a vote across its 27 member states for its parliament with current president Ursula Von der Leyen reportedly running for re-election despite increasing unpopularity.
“Vote here, vote aqui” by whiteafrican is licensed under CC BY 2.0.